Introduction
The Business Pilot Barometer offers a monthly analysis of the key trends defining window and door retail. It draws on real industry data collated by Business Pilot, the cloud-based business management tool developed by installers for installers.
Activity rebounds as autumn begins
Neil Cooper-Smith, Senior Analyst, Business Pilot:
September's data paints an encouraging picture of renewed activity following the quieter summer period, with both leads and sales rising strongly and average order values continuing to strengthen. Conversion rates also remained close to their recent high, suggesting installers are benefiting from a healthier flow of opportunities while continuing to convert them effectively.
August's Barometer highlighted a more selective market, with softer lead and sales volumes balanced by strong conversion and improving order values. September's figures show activity picking up again as the market moves into autumn, while many of the efficiency gains seen over the summer have been maintained.
Lead volumes recorded one of the clearest changes this month, increasing from 99.5 in August to 113.3 in September. That represents a rise of almost 14% month-on-month and takes enquiry levels back above July's figure of 108.6. The rebound suggests the slowdown seen during the school holiday period was largely seasonal, with homeowners returning to the market as normal routines resumed.
Sales activity followed the same direction, rising from 47.8 in August to 53.5 in September, an increase of almost 12%. This brings sales close to July's 54.1 and indicates that the stronger flow of enquiries is translating into confirmed work.
Conversion rates remained particularly steady, moving only marginally from 41.0% in August to 40.9% in September. Having remained at or around 41% for three consecutive months, this consistency suggests installers are continuing to convert opportunities effectively, even as enquiry volumes fluctuate.
Average order values also strengthened, rising from £4,094 in August to £4,344 in September. This represents an increase of just over 6% month-on-month and continues the upward movement seen since June. The latest figure suggests homeowners who are proceeding with projects remain prepared to commit meaningful levels of spend, providing further support for installer revenues as activity picks up.
Lead times edged upwards from 23.5 days in August to 23.8 days in September. The movement is relatively modest and follows the stronger increase in both leads and sales, suggesting businesses are continuing to manage growing workloads while maintaining turnaround times within a broadly consistent range.
A stronger picture year-on-year
Looking beyond the month-on-month recovery, the year-on-year comparison provides further evidence of improvement. September's figures are stronger than the same month last year across leads, sales, conversion rates and average order values, while lead times are considerably shorter.
Average leads increased from 105.6 in September 2025 to 113.3 this September, representing growth of around 7%. Sales also moved ahead, rising from 49.3 to 53.5, an increase of approximately 9%. This means September's improvement extends beyond the usual post-summer uplift, with both measures also performing ahead of the same point last year.
Conversion provides another positive comparison. The average conversion rate stood at 39.8% in September 2025, compared with 40.9% this year, an improvement of 1.1 percentage points. Alongside higher lead volumes, this stronger conversion performance is helping installers generate more sales from a larger pool of opportunities.
The difference in average order value is particularly significant. September 2025 recorded an average of £3,736, compared with £4,344 this September, an increase of more than 16%. This suggests that the higher level of activity is also being accompanied by greater value, with homeowners committing more to the projects that progress to order.
Lead times have moved in a favourable direction too. At 23.8 days this September, they are 3.5 days shorter than the 27.3 days recorded a year ago, a reduction of almost 13%. This suggests installers are handling higher levels of leads and sales while maintaining faster turnaround times than at the same point in 2025.
Taken together, September's figures suggest the market has moved beyond the summer slowdown with renewed momentum. Higher lead volumes are feeding through into stronger sales, while conversion rates and average order values remain healthy. The year-on-year comparison adds further weight to this picture, with performance ahead of September 2025 across the core commercial measures.
The wider economic backdrop remains mixed. UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August, driven in part by higher transport and fuel costs, adding renewed pressure to household budgets. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in September as policymakers continued to monitor inflation and wider economic conditions.
Consumer sentiment, however, has continued to improve gradually. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose by one point to -13 in September, marking a third consecutive monthly improvement. While households remain cautious, the direction of travel suggests confidence is slowly strengthening as consumers assess their finances and future spending plans.
For the home improvement sector, September's data provides encouraging evidence that homeowners are re-engaging following the summer break. Stronger enquiry levels, higher sales activity and rising order values create a positive platform for installers as they move into the autumn trading period. The year-on-year figures also suggest that this improvement extends beyond seasonal patterns, with the market entering the final quarter from a stronger position than at the same point in 2025.
For businesses, the priority will be maintaining the conversion performance seen throughout the summer while managing the increased volume of opportunities entering the pipeline. Timely follow-up, clear visibility across leads and careful monitoring of sales performance will become increasingly important as activity builds.
This is where Business Pilot continues to provide valuable support. By giving installers real-time visibility across leads, conversions, order values and operational performance, it enables businesses to identify changing patterns quickly, respond effectively to new opportunities and make informed decisions based on their own data.
As the sector enters the final quarter of 2026, September's figures suggest the market has regained some momentum following the summer lull. With leads and sales rising both month-on-month and year-on-year, conversion remaining strong and average project values more than 16% higher than last September, installers enter the autumn with a solid base from which to build.
About Business Pilot
Business Pilot is a powerful CRM, which mobilises the power of cloud-based technologies, to give installers complete visibility of each and every element of their operation from leads and conversions to job scheduling, cost of installation, service calls, and financial reporting.
Accessible across all devices, from desktop to phone, it supports installers in running their businesses more profitably.
